The
“Islamic Bomb”, as Pakistan’s
Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto christened it,
was the first known divisible particle emanating
from a Chinese reactor. It was conceived as a
counter-measure against India. The Indian
“peaceful nuclear experiment (PNE)” at
Pokhran in Rajasthan in 1974, on its part, was in
response to developments in the Chinese nuclear
arsenal but it was not a nuclear weapon. That
option was held in abeyance.
The very name implied
that there was a tacit understanding between the
Governments of Pakistan; of an oil-rich sheikhdom;
and China for the sharing of ownership of the
weapon. Dr Abdul Qadir Khan was to be the midwife.
The lynchpin of the jigsaw fell into place when it
became known that China had supplied a 2500-km
range missile to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Placed at the north-east corner of the kingdom the
missile would just about reach Mumbai. But it
would place a large chunk of Iran within its
radius of operation. Placed in the desert adjacent
to the Persian Gulf it would have all of
Iran’s major cities and population centres
in its crosshairs. Chinese chequers?
Iran had by then passed out of the American
orbit by the overthrow of the Shah and the
replacement of the Pehlavi dynasty by hardline
Shia regime of Ayotollah Khomeini. It was
perceived as a threat by every Sunni regime in the
region from Iraq which was largely Shia by
population but ruled by Baathist Sunnis – a
dichotomy that so pricked western corneas that
they made it their national policy to support a
rebellion of the “marsh Arabs”
inhabiting the backwaters of the Persian Gulf
adjacent to Iran with the intention of a regime
change in Baghdad.
Pakistan denies that
it used the Islamic Bomb as geopolitical currency
and has tried to make out that Dr A.Q.Khan was
freelancing when he supplied blueprints of
warheads and centrifuges to Libya, the white
racist regime in South Africa, North Korea and
Iran. Revelations that former Prime Minister
Benazir Bhutto personally carried a copy of the
blueprints of a miniaturized Chinese nuclear
warhead to Pyongyang to exchange for North Korean
missiles confirms that the proliferation of
nuclear weapons and the means of delivery was a
government-to-government
arrangement.
Tel Aviv at
night
The imposition of UN
sanctions on Iran for refusing to comply with
International Atomic Energy Agency requirements
obfuscates the underlying regional rivalry between
the Sunni and Shia regimes in the region. Shia
Iran with nuclear weapons is anathema for Saudi
Arabia and Israel alike. Israeli commentators have
hinted at secret deals between Tel Aviv and Cairo
on the one hand to restrict access between Iran
and the Shia Hezbollah of Lebanon particularly
after the last war in which Israel did not fare as
well as it normally does in conflicts with
Arabs.
Hints are also afloat of an
understanding between Israel and Saudi Arabia on
the issue of Iranian nukes. The fact is that the
Iranian nuclear programme has not fructified into
a nuclear warhead (although it has to be admitted
that the Iranian missile programme has made
remarkable strides).
The current
international exertions, including the UN
sanctions, are intended to ensure that Tehran is
unable to proceed unilaterally towards splitting
the atom for military purposes. Its improved
centrifuge cascades and new facilities
notwithstanding even western and IAEA sources are
aware that Iran is not yet on the threshold of
making the Shia bomb and there is no evidence to
suggest, as in the case of Pakistan, whereby
specialists like Leonard Spector were able to
predict that Pakistan’s project was
“just two screwdriver turns away” from
becoming a reality. It was a remarkably accurate
prediction.
In this scenario an
Israeli-Arab meeting of minds may well result in
Israel carrying out an attack on Iranian
facilities just as it did with the Osirak project
in Iraq in the 70s when it bombed the reactor dome
and set Saddam Hussein’s project back
several decades. For this Israel could be allowed
overflight facilities most particularly by Jordan
and Saudi Arabia By indicating recently that the
US too is ready to attack Iran if it attempts to
bust the UN sanctions Washington appears to have
cleared the planned Israeli raid.
It
does make sense to nip the Iranian project in the
bud because if Tehran is able to create a warhead
within the next three to five years intercepting a
nuclear weapon tipped missile will be an
altogether unpleasant experience as Saddam’s
Scud missiles proved to both Saudi Arabia and
Israel. Both know that even a successful
interception tends to allow the missile debris to
hit ground installations in unpredictable ways.
Israel suffered collateral damage in Tel Aviv
suburbs even after a successful interception as
did Saudi Arabia in Dhahran where a military
barracks was hit because of a Patriot battery
malfunctioned. These are risks one cannot take
with nuclear-tipped missiles.
So we now
have this very “Dr Strangelove”
situation where the Sunni world will learn to love
Israel if it destroys the Shia bomb. And what of
Dr A.Q.Khan of Pakistan who sold centrifuges and
warhead blueprints to Iran? They love him in
Pakistan.
